Lymphatic Uptake of a Highly Lipophilic Protease Inhibitor Prodrug from a Lipid-Based Formulation is Limited by Instability in the Intestine.

Dabigatran etexilate (DABE) is a lipophilic double alkyl ester prodrug of dabigatran (DAB) which is a serine protease inhibitor used clinically as an anticoagulant. Recently, translocation of serine protease enzymes, including trypsin, from the gut into the mesenteric lymph and then blood has been associated with organ failure in acute and critical illnesses (ACIs). Delivery of DABE into mesenteric lymph may thus be an effective strategy to prevent organ failure in ACIs. Most drugs access the mesenteric lymph in low quantities following oral administration, as they are rapidly transported away from the intestine via the blood. Here, we examine the potential to deliver DABE into the mesenteric lymph by promoting association with lymph lipid transport pathways via co-administration with a lipid-based formulation (LBF). A series of self-emulsifying LBFs were designed and tested in vitro for their potential to form stable DABE loaded emulsions and keep DABE solubilised and stable over time in simulated gastrointestinal conditions. The LBFs were found to form fine emulsions with a droplet size of 214 ± 30 nm and DABE was stable in the formulation. The stability of DABE in vitro in simulated intestinal conditions, plasma and lymph samples was also evaluated to ensure stability in collected samples and to evaluate whether the prodrug is likely to release active DAB. Ultimately, a highly uniform and stable self-emulsifying Type III A LBF of DABE was chosen for progression into in vivo studies in male Sprague Dawley rats to confirm the lymphatic uptake and plasma pharmacokinetics. Both in vitro and in vivo in plasma and lymph, DABE was rapidly converted to an intermediate and DAB. The main species present in vivo in both plasma and lymph was DAB and mass transport of DABE and DAB in lymph was minimal (∼0.5 % of dose). Importantly, the concentration of DABE in lymph was substantially (20-176 fold) higher than in plasma, supporting that if the prodrug were stable and did not convert to DAB in the intestine, it would be lymphatically transported. Future studies will therefore focus on optimizing the design of the prodrug and formulation to improve stability during absorption and further promote lymphatic uptake.

Critical appraisal of machine learning prognostic models for acute pancreatitis: protocol for a systematic review.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an acute inflammatory disorder that is common, costly, and is increasing in incidence worldwide with over 300,000 hospitalizations occurring yearly in the United States alone. As its course and outcomes vary widely, a critical knowledge gap in the field has been a lack of accurate prognostic tools to forecast AP patients' outcomes. Despite several published studies in the last three decades, the predictive performance of published prognostic models has been found to be suboptimal. Recently, non-regression machine learning models (ML) have garnered intense interest in medicine for their potential for better predictive performance. Each year, an increasing number of AP models are being published. However, their methodologic quality relating to transparent reporting and risk of bias in study design has never been systematically appraised. Therefore, through collaboration between a group of clinicians and data scientists with appropriate content expertise, we will perform a systematic review of papers published between January 2021 and December 2023 containing artificial intelligence prognostic models in AP. To systematically assess these studies, the authors will leverage the CHARMS checklist, PROBAST tool for risk of bias assessment, and the most current version of the TRIPOD-AI. (Research Registry ( http://www.reviewregistry1727 .).

Optimizing prediction models for pancreatic fistula after pancreatectomy: Current status and future perspectives.

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a frequent complication after pancreatectomy, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical research. Although over sixty models following pancreaticoduodenectomy, predominantly reliant on a variety of clinical, surgical, and radiological parameters, have been documented, their predictive accuracy remains suboptimal in external validation and across diverse populations. As models after distal pancreatectomy continue to be progressively reported, their external validation is eagerly anticipated. Conversely, POPF prediction after central pancreatectomy is in its nascent stage, warranting urgent need for further development and validation. The potential of machine learning and big data analytics offers promising prospects for enhancing the accuracy of prediction models by incorporating an extensive array of variables and optimizing algorithm performance. Moreover, there is potential for the development of personalized prediction models based on patient- or pancreas-specific factors and postoperative serum or drain fluid biomarkers to improve accuracy in identifying individuals at risk of POPF. In the future, prospective multicenter studies and the integration of novel imaging technologies, such as artificial intelligence-based radiomics, may further refine predictive models. Addressing these issues is anticipated to revolutionize risk stratification, clinical decision-making, and postoperative management in patients undergoing pancreatectomy.

Prognostic significance of organ failure and infected pancreatic necrosis in acute pancreatitis: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: In patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), minimally invasive treatment and the step-up approach have been widely used to deal with infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) in the last decade. It is unclear whether IPN has become a less important determinant of mortality relative to organ failure (OF). We aimed to statistically aggregate recent evidence from published studies to determine the relative importance of IPN and OF as determinants of mortality in patients with AP (PROSPERO: CRD42020176989). METHODS: Relevant studies were sourced from MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. Relative risk (RR) or weighted mean difference (WMD) was analyzed as outcomes. A two-sided P value of less than 0.05 was regarded as statistical significance. RESULTS: Forty-three studies comprising 11 601 patients with AP were included. The mortality was 28% for OF patients and 24% for those with IPN. Patients with OF without IPN had a significantly higher risk of mortality compared to those with IPN but without OF (RR 3.72, P < 0.0001). However, patients with both OF and IPN faced the highest risk of mortality. Additionally, IPN increased length of stay in hospital for OF patients (WMD 28.75, P = 0.032). CONCLUSION: Though IPN remains a significant concern, which leads to increased morbidity and longer hospital stay, it is a less critical mortality determinant compared to OF in AP.

Predicting pancreatic fistula after central pancreatectomy using current fistula risk scores for pancreaticoduodenectomy and distal pancreatectomy.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after central pancreatectomy (CP) is high, yet an effective predictive method is currently lacking. This study aimed to predict CR-POPF after CP by utilizing existing fistula risk scores (FRSs) for pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) and distal pancreatectomy (DP). METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients undergoing CP at our institution between January 2010 and July 2022. The primary outcome was CR-POPF (grade B/C) according to the 2016 International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery definition. To establish predictive models for CR-POPF after CP, we combined the FRSs for PD and DP using a calculation formula that considers the probability of the union of two events. As a result, we obtained twelve central FRS (C-FRS) models. The performance of each C-FRS was assessed using the area under the curves (AUC) and calibration plots. RESULTS: A total of 115 patients undergoing CP were included. Among them, 38 (33%) were male, with a median age of 53 years. CR-POPF occurred in 35 (30.4%) patients, specifically 33 (28.7%) with grade B and 2 (1.7%) with grade C. Multivariate analysis showed that body mass index (BMI) [odds ratio (OR) 1.260, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.039-1.528, P = 0.019), pancreatic thickness at the cephalic transection site (OR 1.228, 95% CI 1.074-1.405, P = 0.003), cephalic main pancreatic duct (MPD) size (OR 41.872, 95%CI 7.614-230.265, P < 0.001), and distal MPD size (OR 0.142, 95% CI 0.036-0.561, P = 0.005) were independent predictive factors for CR-POPF. Discrimination was generally acceptable for all C-FRS models, with an AUC ranging from 0.748 (DISPAIR-a-FRS: 95% CI, 0.659-0.824) to 0.847 (Intraop-D-a-FRS: 95% CI, 0.768-0.907). The models were calibrated with adequate Brier scores ranging from 0.157 to 0.183. The performance in all subgroups was similar as that of the entire cohort. Three preoperative risk groups (low, intermediate, and high) were identified based on the clinical applicability of the Preop-D-Roberts-FRS, with corresponding incidences of CR-POPF as 0% (0/24), 30% (21/70), and 66.7% (14/21), respectively. CONCLUSION: The derived C-FRS models show potential for accurately predicting the development of CR-POPF after CP. However, further validation studies are required to determine the most effective model. In the meantime, the Preop-D-Roberts-FRS is recommended for clinical practice due to its ease of use and preoperative predictability.

Early Plasmapheresis Among Patients With Hypertriglyceridemia-Associated Acute Pancreatitis.

Importance: The incidence of hypertriglyceridemia-associated acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) is increasing. Plasmapheresis is theoretically effective in removing triglyceride from plasma, but whether it confers clinical benefits is unclear. Objective: To assess the association between plasmapheresis and the incidence and duration of organ failure among patients with HTG-AP. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is an a priori analysis of data from a multicenter, prospective cohort study with patients enrolled from 28 sites across China. Patients with HTG-AP were admitted within 72 hours from the disease onset. The first patient was enrolled on November 7th, 2020, and the last on November 30th, 2021. The follow-up of the 300th patient was completed on January 30th, 2022. Data were analyzed from April to May 2022. Exposures: Receiving plasmapheresis. The choice of triglyceride-lowering therapies was at the discretion of the treating physicians. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was organ failure-free days to 14 days of enrollment. Secondary outcomes included other measures for organ failure, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, duration of ICU and hospital stays, incidence of infected pancreatic necrosis, and 60-day mortality. Propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analyses were used to control potential confounders. Results: Overall, 267 patients with HTG-AP were enrolled (185 [69.3%] were male; median [IQR] age, 37 [31-43] years), among whom 211 underwent conventional medical treatment and 56 underwent plasmapheresis. PSM created 47 pairs of patients with balanced baseline characteristics. In the matched cohort, no difference was detected concerning organ failure-free days between patients undergoing plasmapheresis or not (median [IQR], 12.0 [8.0-14.0] vs 13.0 [8.0-14.0]; P = .94). Moreover, more patients in the plasmapheresis group required ICU admission (44 [93.6%] vs 24 [51.1%]; P < .001). The IPTW results conformed to the results from the PSM analysis. Conclusions and Relevance: In this large multicenter cohort study of patients with HTG-AP, plasmapheresis was commonly used to lower plasma triglyceride. However, after adjusting for confounders, plasmapheresis was not associated with the incidence and duration of organ failure, but with increased ICU requirements.

Kidney Lymphatics.

Following significant advances in lymphatic biology, the important role of kidney lymphatics in kidney function and dysfunction is now being more fully appreciated. Kidney lymphatics begin in the cortex as blind-ended lymphatic capillaries and then coalesce into larger lymphatics that follow the main blood vessels out through the kidney hilum. Their function in draining interstitial fluid, macromolecules, and cells underpins their important role in kidney fluid and immune homeostasis. This article provides a comprehensive overview of recent and more established research findings on kidney lymphatics and the implications of these findings for kidney function and disease. The use of lymphatic molecular markers has greatly expanded our knowledge of the development, anatomy, and pathophysiology of kidney lymphatics. Significant recent discoveries include the diverse embryological source of kidney lymphatics, the hybrid nature of the ascending vasa recta, and the effects of lymphangiogenesis on kidney diseases such as acute kidney injury and renal fibrosis. On the basis of these recent advances, there is now an opportunity to link information from across multiple research disciplines to drive a new era of lymphatic-targeted therapies for kidney disease. © 2023 American Physiological Society. Compr Physiol 13:4945-4984, 2023.

Predicting Persistent Acute Respiratory Failure in Acute Pancreatitis: The Accuracy of Two Lung Injury Indices.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Early and accurate identification of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) at high risk of persistent acute respiratory failure (PARF) is crucial. We sought to determine the accuracy of simplified Lung Injury Prediction Score (sLIPS) and simplified Early Acute Lung Injury (sEALI) for predicting PARF in ward AP patients. METHODS: Consecutive AP patients in a training cohort from West China Hospital of Sichuan University (n = 912) and a validation cohort from The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University (n = 1033) were analyzed. PARF was defined as oxygen in arterial blood/fraction of inspired oxygen < 300 mmHg that lasts for > 48 h. The sLIPS was composed by shock (predisposing condition), alcohol abuse, obesity, high respiratory rate, low oxygen saturation, high oxygen requirement, hypoalbuminemia, and acidosis (risk modifiers). The sEALI was calculated from oxygen 2 to 6 L/min, oxygen > 6 L/min, and high respiratory rate. Both indices were calculated on admission. RESULTS: PARF developed in 16% (145/912) and 22% (228/1033) (22%) of the training and validation cohorts, respectively. In these patients, sLIPS and sEALI were significantly increased. sLIPS ≥ 2 predicted PARF in the training (AUROC 0.87, 95% CI 0.84-0.89) and validation (AUROC 0.81, 95% CI 0.78-0.83) cohorts. sLIPS was significantly more accurate than sEALI and current clinical scoring systems in both cohorts (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Using routinely available clinical data, the sLIPS can accurately predict PARF in ward AP patients and outperforms the sEALI and current existing clinical scoring systems.

Position statement on the definition, incidence, diagnosis and outcome of acute on chronic pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Acute on chronic pancreatitis (ACP) is a relatively common condition, but there are significant gaps in our knowledge on the definition, incidence, diagnosis, treatment and prognosis. METHODS: A systematic review that followed PICO (Population; Intervention; Comparator; Outcome) recommendation for quantitative questions and PICo (Population, Phenomenon of Interest, Context) for qualitative research was done to answer 10 of the most relevant questions about ACP. Quality of evidence was judged by the GRADE criteria (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation). The manuscript was sent for review to 12 international experts from various disciplines and continents using a Delphi process. RESULTS: The quality of evidence, for most statements, was low to very low, which means that the recommendations in general are only conditional. Despite that, it was possible to reach strong levels of agreement by the expert panel for all 10 questions. A new consensus definition of ACP was reached. Although common, the real incidence of ACP is not known, with alcohol as a major risk factor. Although pain dominates, other non-specific symptoms and signs can be present. Serum levels of pancreatic enzymes may be less than 3 times the upper limit of normal and cross-sectional imaging is considered more accurate for the diagnosis in many cases. It appears that it is less severe and with a lower mortality risk than acute pancreatitis. CONCLUSIONS: Although the evidence base is poor, this position statement provides a foundation from which to advance management of ACP.

The Anti-Tubercular Aminolipopeptide Trichoderin A Displays Selective Toxicity against Human Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Cells Cultured under Glucose Starvation.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma remains a highly debilitating condition with no effective disease-modifying interventions. In our search for natural products with promising anticancer activity, we identified the aminolipopeptide trichoderin A as a potential candidate. While it was initially isolated as an antitubercular peptide, we provide evidence that it is also selectively toxic against BxPC-3 and PANC-1 human pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma cells cultured under glucose deprivation. This has critical implications for the pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, which is characterized by nutrient deprivation due to its hypovascularized network. We have also successfully simplified the trichoderin A peptide backbone, allowing greater accessibility to the peptide for further biological testing. In addition, we also conducted a preliminary investigation into the role of peptide lipidation at the N-terminus. This showed that analogues with longer fatty acyl chains exhibited superior cytotoxicity than those with shorter acyl chains. Further structural optimization of trichoderin A is anticipated to improve its biological activity, whilst ongoing mechanistic studies to elucidate its intracellular mechanism of action are conducted in parallel.

Intraluminal oxygen mitigates acute mesenteric ischaemia: a systematic review of methods and outcomes in animal studies.

BACKGROUND: Acute Mesenteric Ischaemic (AMI) is a rare condition with significant morbidity and mortality. Many causes of AMI exist, which usually begin with mucosal injury. Onset is insiduous and there is frequent diagnostic delay. Current treatments can only control established injury and prevent propagation, hence new interventions are needed. The prevention and treatment of AMI by intraluminal delivery of oxygen has yet to be investigated in the clinical setting. This article aims to systemically review experimental studies investigating this novel therapy. METHODS: Following the PRISMA guidelines, searches of PubMed and Ovid MEDLINE databases were performed up to June 2022. Two independent investigators extracted the data. RESULTS: There were 20 experimental studies, 16 of which used an occlusive ischaemia reperfusion model. Six different formulations were used to deliver intraluminal oxygen, with perflurocarbon being the most common. Studies consistently showed local and systemic benefits. Intraluminal oxygen therapy improved histological severity of mucosal injury in all studies when oxygen was delivered during the ischaemia phase, but could cause harm if given during the reperfusion phase. Improvement was also demonstrated in endpoints assessing intestinal function, biomarkers of intestinal damage, measures of systemic physiological derangement and mortality. CONCLUSION: Intraluminal oxygenation appears to be an effective treatment for AMI. There remain significant questions regarding optimal timing and delivery formulation before clinical translation of this treatment strategy.

Optimising the measurement of intra-bladder pressure in patients with predicted severe acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Measuring intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) is important for management of patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Intra-bladder pressure (IBP) is an indirect index that reflects IAP, but measuring techniques vary. We sought to optimise IBP measuring techniques in predicted SAP patients. METHODS: Predicted SAP patients consecutively admitted between June 2018 and January 2020 were scrutinised. Eligible patients had their IBP monitored for the first 72 h at 6-h intervals, and were then sequentially allocated into three research scenarios: (1) in the supine position along with head of bed elevation(HoBE)of 0, 15 and 30° at various points including the iliac crest the midaxillary line, pubic symphysis, and right atrium level, instilled with 25 mL normal saline (NS) at room temperature (RT); (2) NS instillation volume from 0, 10, 25, 40-50 mL at the iliac crest with HoBE15 at RT; and (3) NS instillation (25 mL) at either RT or 37 °C with HoBE15. RESULTS: The dynamic IBP values measured at the pubic symphysis and iliac crest were fairly similar between HoBE0 and HoBE15 (all P > 0.05), but greatly increased at HoBE30 (all P < 0.01). IBP was significantly increased with escalating instillation volumes of NS (all P < 0.01 versus 0 mL NS), while there was no significant difference between 25 mL and 10 mL (P = 0.055). IBP was similar between NS at RT and under 37 °C (P = 0.643). CONCLUSION: In predicted SAP patients, measuring IBP at the iliac crest with HoBE15 after instilling 10 mL of NS seems to be appropriate for monitoring IAP.

Clinical Trials in Pancreatitis: Opportunities and Challenges in the Design and Conduct of Patient-Focused Clinical Trials in Recurrent Acute and Chronic Pancreatitis: Summary of a National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases Workshop.

ABSTRACT: Recurrent acute pancreatitis and chronic pancreatitis represent high morbidity diseases, which are frequently associated with chronic abdominal pain, pancreatic insufficiencies, and reduced quality of life. Currently, there are no therapies to reverse or delay disease progression, and clinical trials are needed to investigate potential interventions that would address this important gap. This conference report provides details regarding information shared during a National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases-sponsored workshop on Clinical Trials in Pancreatitis that sought to clearly delineate the current gaps and opportunities related to the design and conduct of patient-focused trials in recurrent acute pancreatitis and chronic pancreatitis. Key stakeholders including representatives from patient advocacy organizations, physician investigators (including clinical trialists), the US Food and Drug Administration, and the National Institutes of Health convened to discuss challenges and opportunities with particular emphasis on lessons learned from trials in participants with other painful conditions, as well as the value of incorporating the patient perspective throughout all stages of trials.

Impact of admission and early persistent stress hyperglycaemia on clinical outcomes in acute pancreatitis.

Background: To determine the impact of glucose levels at admission and during first week (early phase) on clinical outcomes in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and to investigate the relationship between stress hyperglycaemia (SHG) and hypertriglyceridaemia (HTG). Methods: Two independent and prospective databases were retrospectively analysed (n = 1792). Patients admitted with pain of less than 48 hours and confirmed AP were included. SHG was defined as admission blood glucose ≥ 10.00 mmol/L (non-diabetic) or ≥ 16.67 mmol/L (diabetic). Blood glucose records for the first week were inspected to determine whether SHG lasted ≥ 48 hours (persistent) or < 48 hours (transient). Clinical outcomes were compared between designated patient groups using multivariate and trend analyses. The correlation between SHG and HTG (serum triglyceride ≥ 5.65 mmol/L) was also analysed. Results: On admission, SHG was present in 27.8% (499/1792) patients; during the first 48 hours of admission, transient and persistent SHG was found in 31% (556/1792) and 8.0% (144/1792) patients, respectively. Admission SHG was associated with higher incidence of persistent organ failure, acute necrotic collection, major infection, and mortality as well as prolonged length of hospital stay (all P < 0.05). Duration of SHG was also associated with worsened clinical outcomes (all P < 0.05). In HTG-AP patients, more severe clinical outcomes were observed in those who concomitantly had SHG (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Admission and persistent SHG during the first week of admission worsens clinical outcomes of AP patients. These effects are more pronounced when admission HTG co-existed.

The cisterna chyli: a systematic review of definition, prevalence, and anatomy.

The cisterna chyli is a lymphatic structure found at the caudal end of the thoracic duct that receives lymph draining from the abdominal and pelvic viscera and lower limbs. In addition to being an important landmark in retroperitoneal surgery, it is the key gateway for interventional radiology procedures targeting the thoracic duct. A detailed understanding of its anatomy is required to facilitate more accurate intervention, but an exhaustive summary is lacking. A systematic review was conducted, and 49 published human studies met the inclusion criteria. Studies included both healthy volunteers and patients and were not restricted by language or date. The detectability of the cisterna chyli is highly variable, ranging from 1.7 to 98%, depending on the study method and criteria used. Its anatomy is variable in terms of location (vertebral level of T10 to L3), size (ranging 2-32 mm in maximum diameter and 13-80 mm in maximum length), morphology, and tributaries. The size of the cisterna chyli increases in some disease states, though its utility as a marker of disease is uncertain. The anatomy of the cisterna chyli is highly variable, and it appears to increase in size in some disease states. The lack of well-defined criteria for the structure and the wide variation in reported detection rates prevent accurate estimation of its natural prevalence in humans.

Gastric dysfunction in patients with chronic nausea and vomiting syndromes defined by a noninvasive gastric mapping device.

Chronic nausea and vomiting syndromes (NVSs) are prevalent and debilitating disorders. Putative mechanisms include gastric neuromuscular disease and dysregulation of brain-gut interaction, but clinical tests for objectively defining gastric motor function are lacking. A medical device enabling noninvasive body surface gastric mapping (BSGM) was developed and applied to evaluate NVS pathophysiology. BSGM was performed in 43 patients with NVS and 43 matched controls using Gastric Alimetry (Alimetry), a conformable high-resolution array (8 × 8 electrodes; 20-mm interelectrode spacing), wearable reader, and validated symptom-logging app. Continuous measurement encompassed a fasting baseline (30 minutes), 482-kilocalorie meal, and 4-hour postprandial recording, followed by spectral and spatial biomarker analyses. Meal responses were impaired in NVS, with reduced amplitudes compared to controls (median, 23.3 microvolts versus 38.0 microvolts, P < 0.001), impaired fed-fasting power ratios (1.1 versus 1.6, P = 0.02), and disorganized slow waves (spatial frequency stability, 13.6 versus 49.5; P < 0.001). Two distinct NVS subgroups were evident with indistinguishable symptoms (all P > 0.05). Most patients (62%) had normal BSGM studies with increased psychological comorbidities (43.5% versus 7.7%; P = 0.03) and anxiety scores (median, 16.5 versus 13.0; P = 0.035). A smaller subgroup (31%) had markedly abnormal BSGM, with biomarkers correlating with symptoms (nausea, pain, excessive fullness, early satiety, and bloating; all r > 0.35, P < 0.05). Patients with NVS share overlapping symptoms but comprise distinct underlying phenotypes as revealed by a BSGM device. These phenotypes correlate with symptoms, which should inform clinical management and therapeutic trial design.

Optimising fluid requirements after initial resuscitation: A pilot study evaluating mini-fluid challenge and passive leg raising test in patients with predicted severe acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: The goals and approaches to fluid therapy vary through different stages of resuscitation. This pilot study was designed to test the safety and feasibility of a fluid therapy protocol for the second or optimisation stage of resuscitation in patients with predicted severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). METHODS: Spontaneously breathing patients with predicted SAP were admitted after initial resuscitation and studied over a 24-h period in a tertiary hospital ward. Objective clinical assessment (OCA; heart rate, mean arterial pressure, urine output, and haematocrit) was done at 0, 4, 8, 12, 18-20, and 24 h. All patients had mini-fluid challenge (MFC; 250 ml intravenous normal saline within 10 min) at 0 h and repeated at 4 and 8 h if OCA score ≥2. Patients who were fluid responsive (>10% change in stroke volume after MFC) received 5-10 ml/kg/h, otherwise 1-3 ml/kg/h until the next time point. Passive leg raising test (PLRT) was done at each time point and compared with OCA for assessing volume status and predicting fluid responsiveness. RESULTS: This fluid therapy protocol based on OCA, MFC, and PLRT and designed for the second stage of resuscitation was safe and feasible in spontaneously breathing predicted SAP patients. The PLRT was superior to OCA (at 0 and 8 h) for predicting fluid responsiveness and guiding fluid therapy. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study found that a protocol for intravenous fluid therapy specifically for the second stage of resuscitation in patients with predicted SAP was safe, feasible, and warrants further investigation.

Predicting persistent organ failure on admission in patients with acute pancreatitis: development and validation of a mobile nomogram.

BACKGROUND: Early prediction of persistent organ failure (POF) is important for triage and timely treatment of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). METHODS: All AP patients were consecutively admitted within 48 h of symptom onset. A nomogram was developed to predict POF on admission using data from a retrospective training cohort, validated by two prospective cohorts. The clinical utility of the nomogram was defined by concordance index (C-index), decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC), while the performance by post-test probability. RESULTS: There were 816, 398, and 880 patients in the training, internal and external validation cohorts, respectively. Six independent predictors determined by logistic regression analysis were age, respiratory rate, albumin, lactate dehydrogenase, oxygen support, and pleural effusion and were included in the nomogram (web-based calculator: https://shina.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/). This nomogram had reasonable predictive ability (C-indexes 0.88/0.91/0.81 for each cohort) and promising clinical utility (DCA and CIC). The nomogram had a positive likelihood ratio and post-test probability of developing POF in the training, internal and external validation cohorts of 4.26/31.7%, 7.89/39.1%, and 2.75/41%, respectively, superior or equal to other prognostic scores. CONCLUSIONS: This nomogram can predict POF of AP patients and should be considered for clinical practice and trial allocation.